MauiSunset’s Roulette Paradox states: the chance of winning a “straight up” bet on an American Roulette wheel is NOT 1 in 38 but 1 in 52, resulting in a House Advantage 6 times as large, but with the payoff remaining the same 35 to 1.

Let me prove it to you.

The odds of winning a single number bet, a “straight up” bet, mathematically is defined as 1 divided by the number of slots on the Roulette wheel, 38 for an American wheel (numbers 1 – 36, 0 and 00) and 37 for a European wheel (numbers 1 – 36 and 0).  I don’t dispute this at all.  The odds are 1 in 38. (American wheel for the remainder of this post)

However, those odds are usurped by the probability of your number showing up in the next spin – a HUGE difference.  This is what the “Gamblers’ Fallacy” is all about – which demands that the odds MUST dominate the game of Roulette for EVERY spin.  If you see 10 Reds in a row and the odds are close to 50/50 then Black is grossly over due – that’s the Gamblers’ Fallacy, demanding the odds supersede probability.  The same applies here.

When the odds are calculated, 1 divided by 38, the assumption is that each and every one of those 38 slots is just as likely to be hit.  That’s wrong, that’s the Gambler’s Fallacy, demanding the odds dominate over statistics for EVERY spin.  In reality 1/3 of the numbers, actually 36.3%, on the Roulette wheel will not be included in the next spin and must be accounted for in the actual odds.

That would mean that if I pick a number, 0, 00, or 1 – 36, that it MUST show up in the next 38 spins – right?  Well that’s what it means when you say the odds are equal for every slot on the Roulette wheel for every spin.  If a duplicate number appears then the odds were not equal – that number was not 1/38 likely to hit – it just hit in the last spin.

In fact, if you bet on the same number for 38 times in a row, you will find that about 1/3 of these tests results with your number not being spun – that’s right about 1/3 of the time.

Roulette random numbers have a quirk – duplicates, triplicates, quadruplicates, and higher will spin out in the next 38 spins of the wheel.  I’ve included the mathematics proving this at the end of this article.  Basically when you have 38 numbers and 38 spins 1/3 (about 13-14 of them) will be spun once, 1/3 (13 -14 of them) will show up as duplicates and higher, and thus 1/3 (actually 36.3% or 13-14 of them) will not show up at all due to the dups.

Therefore the one number you pick up for “straight up” bets should show up in 38 + 14 or 52 spins, yet the payoff is still 35 to 1.

The House Advantage is calculated by the chance of winning which is 1/52 * 35 minus the chance of loosing which is 51/52 * -1 = -30.77% instead of the stated odds calculation of 1/38 * 35 – 37/38 * 1 = -5.26%.  The HAHouse Advantage: American Wheel: 2/38=5.26% European Wheel: 1/37=2.7% Of every bet goes to the House (Casino) for Roulette Straight Up bets, in reality, is really 6 times more than theoretical odds calculation – it is a sucker bet.

As supporting proof I offer the fact that the average profit per Roulette table in Las Vegas NOT the House Advantage for Roulette of 5.26% but the tables produce a profit of 16% – 3 times as much profit, based on real spins and not theoretical odds.  Something must account for the HUGE profits of Nevada casinos and Straight Up bets is the answer; most of the bets on a Roulette table are Straight Up.  Nevada Roulette table winnings reported to the Nevada Gaming Commission: http://www.gaming.nv.gov/documents/pdf/1g_12mar.pdf

In summary, betting on “straight up” single numbers is 6 times worse than the stated Roulette odds table; it’s a sucker bet.  The stated odds of 1 in 35 are wrong – the Gamblers’ Fallacy was used in that calculation, the probability of winning is really 1 in 52.

The “Observation of the Third of Random Numbers not spun”:

If the chance of spinning a single number is 1/38 then the chance of NOT spinning the number is 37/38 and for 38 spins is (37/38)^38 = 36.3%, that means for a Roulette wheel 38 * .363 = 13.8 or 14 numbers will not show up in the next 38 spins.

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Hit and run works really well in baseball but it’s a really stupid idea in Roulette – yet I read Roulette system after system based on this really really dumb idea.  Other Roulette chat rooms are full of kooks who believe in this crazy idea – that betting just a few spins has some magical power.

EVERY spin of the wheel you are prepared to bet on is just a continuation of ALL the previous spins you were prepared to bet on – it’s cumulative in nature; it’s called statistics.  Over a long period of time, like 10,000 spins, your personal betting record should approach the odds for the kind of bets you wager – but ONLY if you play Roulette the correct way – playing the odds table and FLAT betting.  If you don’t play the odds table, or use negative progressions, you will do much worse than the stated odds – much worse; because you will be wiped out early and never play the thousands of spins needed to approach what the odds table say you should be doing.

Now you might say that I preach the same thing with my system – that after 3 hours of gambling, about 75 spins of ECEqual Chance bets 1) Red/Black 2) Odd/Even 3) High/Low betting with $5 bets, I tell you that if you are near the target profit of $60 I just end the session early and walk away.  This is simply weighing spending another hour in a smoke filled casino, woozy after 3 hours of drinking hard-liquor, and needing to hit the bathroom again; it has nothing to do with a gambling system; I’ve had my fill of gambling for that session.

But there are thousands of Roulette systems based on the “hit and run” idea – that the system is based on some super-secret concept of quick betting.  This ALWAYS means that the system is so bad, as it stands, that playing it continuously for hundreds of spins will wipe you out so fast that the author then says to just use it for a couple of spins; like that will solve the problem of a horribly designed system.

Folks, this is insanity.  There is no mathematical principle called “hit and run” – you can read every book on statistics at the library and you won’t find a single paragraph dedicated to “hit and run” statistics.  Betting on just a few spins is called luck, not statistics.  Just like every baseball player has a lifetime, season, and game batting average they all tie back to the lifetime average which defines that player in the history books.

The Roulette Odds table is based on FLAT betting – betting the same amount every spin.  If you use any kind of progression, either positive or negative, you immediately diverge from the odds table – and probably not in a good way.  Most of us measure how we did that session by the amount of money in our bankroll as we leave the table – we don’t keep track of the number of wins and losses at the table; which is the statistics and the only thing that matters in the long run.   To put it another way, over the long run you will do no better than the odds table but the amount you bet can easily bankrupt you out of the casino in a few spins.

What makes Roulette gambling worth the time and effort is based on long term statistics – that in the long run you will average the odds for the bets you place and that the house can only win the HAHouse Advantage: American Wheel: 2/38=5.26% European Wheel: 1/37=2.7% Of every bet goes to the House (Casino) from you; but ONLY if you play Roulette the correct way by playing the odds table.  In the short run, luck dominates just a few spins and you have NO control over luck – none, zip, zilch………..

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The Darth Vader of Roulette is the Marquee that EVERY casino attaches to EVERY Roulette table and the electronic Roulette games have too.

It’s big and overwhelming and it will kill your game and has done so for as long as you have been playing Roulette.

Why?  Because the random numbers spit out from the Roulette wheel or RNGRandom Number Generator - hardware or software that generates random numbers mean NOTHING – zip, zilch, zero to predicting future numbers the wheel will spin.

Of the 300+ Roulette systems out there, 95% of them use past numbers in their algorithms to pick the next bet.  If old Roulette numbers are totally worthless then those 95% of the systems are totally worthless too.  To make things worse those systems will cost you huge losses when you use them.

The ONLY way you stand a chance in Roulette is to ignore the Marquee.

The Dolly, that cute little thing that the dealer places on the number just spun out, must be ignored too. Any Roulette system that uses the last number spun out is totally worthless and you will lose money following it.

The ONLY way you stand a chance playing Roulette is to play the odds and NOT the Marquee.

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Roulette was created by Blaise Pascal, around 1655 as a perpetual motion machine project – somehow that seems fitting.  It has been played in its present form since 1796 when it was introduced in Paris. Roulette is the French word for “small wheel”.

If you add up the numbers 1 – 36 the total is 666 – somehow that seems fitting too.

In the 216+ year history of Roulette there has never been a documented case, one reproducible, of Roulette being “broken” – beaten. This is why casinos have Roulette tables and machines – it is a HUGE money maker for them. So if your goal is to break Roulette you can forget it; all you can expect to do is not get beaten up badly by Roulette and sometimes Pascal will smile down upon you.

Let me repeat that – Roulette is a money maker for the casinos and no human being has ever “broken” Roulette and there are no super-secret methods to consistently make money playing Roulette.  ALL the Roulette systems for sale are con jobs – you can spend all the money you want and you won’t find a steady, reliable, way of beating Roulette; if there were such a system the casinos would throw the Roulette tables in the Dumpster tonight – all of them.

Name one game that is beatable on a regular basis in ANY casino?  There are none.  EVERY game in the casino is designed to be fun to play and make a fortune for the casino.  You were expecting something else?

I can save you lots of money and aggravation by telling you the truth – Roulette is entertainment and with a little luck you can be profitable that day.  However, the longer you play Roulette the more the odds will catch up with you and you will be a net loser.  That’s the truth; Roulette is gambling and not investing.

So the idea is to have fun and try to lose as little money as possible while you guzzle down free drinks, stay at the casino’s hotel for free, eat free buffets, and spend any money won while gambling to enrich your adventure at the casino.

There is no better feeling than having a lucky day at the Roulette table and that night eat at expensive restaurants and watch world class entertainment – all on the casino’s money.  Of course when Lady Luck kicks you in the stomach you eat at Mickey Dees and watch a rerun movie on TV.

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The “meat and potatoes” of this website will be the 300 – 500 Roulette systems I have found on the internet and other venues.  Throughout all the 300+ systems presented here I used a methodology to dissect them and rank them – this is what I did.

Roulette can be broken into two major components:

1. Casino side – Roulette the game
2. Player side – A system to play Roulette

Casino’s side

Roulette has three parts to it:

• The rules to play Roulette with payouts
• The posted odds
• Random numbers generated

The Roulette rules are posted in thousands of websites and well known.  Each casino uses the rules it wants to run its Roulette tables.  Usually the only difference, from casino to casino, is how 0 works.  For this website 0 is like any other number 1 – 36.  00 is exactly the same, any number 1 – 36.  0 is NOT even, it is green, not Red or Black, and it is NOT low; same with 00.  Payouts for various bets are well defined and every Roulette dealer knows them and can tell you if asked.

The odds for Roulette are well know and published on thousands of web sites.  Generally the Roulette dealer has no idea what the odds are.  These odds apply ONLY to the current spin.

The random numbers generated from a Roulette wheel or RNGRandom Number Generator - hardware or software that generates random numbers are random – the next number to show up has absolutely no dependency on past numbers spun.

Player side

The player gets to create any kind of system they want but it must, of course, follow the casino rules and payouts, accept the odds, and the random numbers generated.  You get to do:

• Create ANY set of rules to run the system
• Create your own odds
• Generate your own set of predictions

System Rules dictate how you view the casino’s rules, odds, and payout amounts.  You can mix and match the casino’s rules and come up with your own version for your playing.  i.e. you don’t have to view each spin as a unique event but it can be part of a much larger sequence of many spins.

You can create your own odds but they must be based upon the casino’s odds for any one spin.  For example if you want to say that two spins define you basic system element then the odds are combined and the odds of a Red showing up twice in a row are 1/4 (ignoring 0 and 00) instead of 1/2 as it is in one spin.

You get to come up with your prediction of what the next number spun will be, since you don’t know what the Roulette wheel will actually spin.  This prediction can be derived very simply or very complex, but you have control over that prediction.

As I examine each of the 300+ systems I will break each system into these components so you can quickly compare them to each other.  I will indicate the system’s strengths and weaknesses as I view them.